Overdue?

For some reason the media wants to boost ratings by telling people that Yellowstone is overdue for a big eruption. As I explained in past blogs the next time Yellowstone erupts it will most likely be of the smaller types. Here I would like to show you the dates and time in between. Also remember that this assumption that Yellowstone is overdue is based on only three eruptions. I pulled these dates from the science bulletins on the American Museum of Natural History. http://www.amnh.org/sciencebulletins/earth/f/yellowstone.20060601/essays/83_1.php

first eruption
2.1 million years Ago

second eruption
1.3 million years Ago

third eruption
640,000 years Ago

times in between
800,000 years and 660,000 years

So as you can see the times in between are very different and if you want to use these as an estimation of time to the next eruption you can see that its not really overdue since the last eruption was 640,000 years ago and the average time between is 730,000 years.